The New Orleans Saints struggle in Tyler Shough’s first full season as a starter — while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take another worrying step backward. In this simulation (they pick up a second consecutive division title), earning the No. 1 seed in the division in the process. The Chicago Bears are possibly the most intriguing team heading into 2026, with several reasons to expect both regression and continued improvement. Liam Coen continues to build a genuine contender in Jacksonville, and four consecutive wins to close out the year secured a second consecutive division title. In a tight AFC South battle, the Tennessee Titans narrowly miss out on a playoff spot with eight wins, while the Indianapolis Colts fall short for the sixth straight year. Aaron Rodgers has yet to commit to the team for 2026 (and even if he does), the Steelers’ schedule is not pretty.
The Bengals are back in (though), four years since facing the Chiefs in back-to-back conference championship games. In this scenario (it’s highly likely that the team gets a good look at Carson Beck), but that they’re also in the market for his immediate replacement in hockey betting tips the 2027 NFL Draft. It’s hard not to feel sorry for the Cardinals, with three of the top teams in the NFL all playing for their division. The Buffalo Bills get back on top of their division, with the Patriots winning six fewer games in this simulation than they did in 2025. The FPM projects Pittsburgh for just over eight wins (and only five would be a huge surprise), but it’s within the range of outcomes. We ran a 2026 season simulation using PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, which uses PFSN’s strength of schedule rankings and power rankings to predict each of the 272 games individually.
- The Cowboys close the season with games against divisional foes, the Commanders and Giants.
- If the eight divisions play out exactly as we see above in our projected standings — here’s what the 14-team playoff bracket would look like.
- Adding Azeez Ojulari was a pretty nice move (and I like what this team did in the draft), continuing to stock great players.
- Just don’t look at the weeks immediately after, or — for reasons that I will explain next — before.
- The playoffs are being revisited by the Eagles, with the possibility of reaching the Super Bowl once more.
Peak period: Weeks 1 to 5.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning is a big betting favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The Seahawks’ offensive unknowns seemed to influence the final win-loss decision whenever more stable operations appeared on the calendar. Despite having a week off to prepare (and the added benefit of catching the Commanders on short rest fresh off a loss at Kansas City), the Seahawks are unable to capture a potentially season-altering victory at the midpoint. The win pushes Seattle above .500 for the first and last time in 2025.
Toughest game to call: Week 3 at Bears.
In all seriousness — both teams failed to make the playoffs last year but should be expected to challenge this year. The Raiders would field plenty of calls for the first overall pick — with the team unlikely to be in the market for one of the draft’s top quarterback prospects. Meanwhile, for only the third time since the 2013 season, the AFC champions will be a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs or the Patriots, as both missed the playoffs. All four teams finish with winning records, as the NFC North maintains its status as one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. The New York Jets show signs of progression with seven wins and have an enviable stack of 2027 draft picks to improve their young roster further.
Six of the bottom seven teams could realistically finish the year with first- (second-), or third-year quarterbacks under center. With just 0.3 wins separating the Jaguars and the Houston Texans (and just two wins between all four teams), the AFC South is expected to be the tightest division. It also gives us the number of simulations in which a team wins the division and makes the playoffs. For preseason rankings, it incorporates how quarterback and coaching changes might impact those teams.
Ultimately, as much as I would love it narratively, it’s tough for me to predict a Detroit win here. Plenty of eyes will be on the Lions following the offseason defections of key members of the coaching staff, and I have them responding well, racing out to a strong start … Williams threw for 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns amid total chaos as a rookie in 2024.
Even though the bottom falls out after Thanksgiving, I suspect many of those December games — like at Houston and against Atlanta — will end up being close. After winning consecutive road games (including this matchup at Seattle), the Cardinals hit the midpoint at 6-3, putting themselves in the thick of the NFC West race. Tampa could certainly outperform my projection early on, but I’ll be more confident in the timing of the team’s eventual course correction once its talented left tackle and sure-handed WR2 return to the starting lineup. Back-to-back wins give the devoted NOLA fans something to celebrate — and rookie Tyler Shough a moment of respite in an otherwise-challenging rookie season. Four of Carolina’s six projected wins are within the NFC South, marking just the second time the franchise has posted a winning divisional record in a decade. Instead (Atlanta finishes with nine total losses), allowing Tampa to sit its starters in the regular-season finale.
Went back and forth on this game until ultimately siding with Atlanta. The 2025 Panthers could be a prime example of a team that’s better than its projected record. A strong start would do wonders for this franchise. If Bryce Young’s sophomore resurgence carries over into Year 3 and the team’s revamped defense clicks from the jump, Carolina could certainly win at Jacksonville. Unable to translate competitive performances — including this close one at Lambeau — into Ws, the Panthers hit the midpoint with just two wins on their ledger. The floor is pretty high for him, and I thus wouldn’t be surprised if he and his squad undercut my analysis here by making a run to the playoffs similar to what Bo Nix and the Broncos accomplished last year.
With the teams owning picks 2-6 all likely looking for a quarterback in this scenario, it’s highly likely the Jets would need to use that draft capital to pull off a trade. In their first five games of the season — the Eagles face four teams that made the 2024 playoffs … As high as I am on the 49ers, even great teams have bad games. You’ll find our conference seeding for the entire playoff field, including our individual picks for the eight division winners and six wild-card teams.
Could Jaxson Dart leap over Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to lead the Giants to the playoffs this year — proving both of us wrong here? Just don’t look at the weeks immediately after, or — for reasons that I will explain next — before. In my scenario, the bad vibes spill over into a rough start that reaches its nadir in this loss to the Panthers, which drops the ‘Boys to 1-5. This stretch could make or break a return to the playoffs if things go a little better than either of us is forecasting during Brian Schottenheimer’s first season.
I like the Vikings’ general approach, and I believe McCarthy is going to be a great quarterback in Minnesota. What better time for the Vikes to pull off a huge win than in J.J. After their transatlantic trip, the Vikings get a bye — then hit a three-game skid. Adding veteran running back Josh Jacobs to the offense worked out great last season, and rookie receiver Matthew Golden is going to be a stud this year. The emotional letdown gives this setback an edge in this category over being swept by the Bears for the first time since 2007. In the end (Rodgers’ former squad stays on an early roll while taking some of the starch out of Pittsburgh’s own encouraging start), dropping the Steelers to 4-3.
At the end of November, a challenging game in Tampa initiates a demanding stretch that features both home and away matches against the Rams, along with visits to Houston and Cincinnati. I believe this team can pose problems for any opponent (the formidable Eagles included), when fully healthy. However, it would surprise me if this team avoids experiencing its share of challenges while transitioning into a new chapter of Saints football. Nevertheless — I wouldn’t dismiss the chance of a refreshed Saints squad making an impact at home against their fierce rival.
With sufficient veteran leadership present — New Orleans has the potential to double their expected wins, assuming the quarterback performs competently. Yet (despite the promising appearance of the enhanced pass rush on paper), I remain unconvinced the team has resolved its issues in that area until I witness it during crucial games. It’ll be interesting to observe the conversations surrounding these two teams and this matchup in a few months. The Packers are an excellent team, and they will qualify for the playoffs for the third consecutive year. The Giants have an opportunity to potentially accumulate several victories here, starting with a home game against the Chargers , who face the challenging early East Coast start,, followed by a visit to the rebuilding Saints.
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